Saturated Market for PBBGs?

[Sinzygy]

Hiya all!
(I guess most of you don't remember me, but I used to be around here about a year ago or more)

A couple of years ago, PBBGs were mostly advertised by word of mouth advertising. I know I only heard about this site so I went and checked it out. Only after you played one of these games you'd finally find more and more of them.
But today on every tenth page or so, there are links to popular PBBGs.

This leads me to wonder if small, independent PBBGs stand any real chance in todays internet-world.
Hell, I even saw a commercial on TV for a PBBG!

If we look at some numbers:
Currently there are about 1.6 Billion Internet-Users[1]. About half of it are heavy-internet users. That leaves us at ~8*10⁸ users. What follows is purely speculation:
From these 800 Million users, only about 5% will play a pbbg (the rest will use the internet for shopping, social networks, flash games, etc.).
So from 1.6 Billion users the PBBG section gets 40 Million users, maybe double that number but not more.
Now if we look at a popular pbbg, let's say tribal wars (probably most of you heard of it before) we get a grand total of around 1 Million subscribers[2] (german + english version). A lot of games are smaller, but there are a lot of them (I just swept through some toplist-sites) so I'm worried that those 40-80 Million users already found a home they like.

All of this led me to wonder, how many more PBBGs can be sustained with the current player-base. Is it really looking this bad, or is my math simply way off?

[1] http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm
[2] Yes, I know that these are all subscribed accounts ever created, but still. If even only 10% of the registered users are active, or 5%, it still is a lot. And besides, there are always the so-called PBBG-Nomads that wander from game to game, subscribing and then leaving after a week or two, so those won't stay anywhere at all.

[jannesiera]

Welcome back . (I remember you, you left not much after I arrived here I think)

I don't think new games have much to fear. There are many games not-being-updated, so people will go for newer games. People always want to try something new btw. Plus there are still many niches out there, there is intrest in new ideas and concepts, new genres, etc. I also think you would be surprised how many people play bbgames. And many different people play different genres.

But I gotta go and learn for exam now, so...

[Scion]

I very much doubt that the market for PBBG's is saturated....if anything the browser as a platform for games is likely to grow quite substantially.

What is likely though is that the production quality of games will rise....meaning us smaller indie developers are likely to get shut-out of the mainstream.... ( imho this has already happened ) ... but the good news is that the internet encourages the long tail....which leaves plenty of space for us to find our niche.

and as more and more people come online, then that tail grows longer and longer and there is more space in it....

ps...i think i arrived after you left....but ive seen your comments in posts ive read.....welcome back....that waters still warm.

[Chris]

It's far from being saturated. You can get an impression that there are plenty of BBGs but once you look behind the surface you will notice that huge majority of them are just some tiny games on free webhost, clones of the same free script put by kids, abandoned games, games that have problems with simple things like register page, etc, etc.

Sure, it is saturated by average games, but if your game is above average there are no problems. Gamers desperately look for these.

[cpvr]

A couple of years ago, PBBGs were mostly advertised by word of mouth advertising. I know I only heard about this site so I went and checked it out. Only after you played one of these games you'd finally find more and more of them.
But today on every tenth page or so, there are links to popular PBBGs.

What makes a game a PBBGs?
Is a pet game a PBBG?

[Scion]

What makes a game a PBBGs?

http://www.pbbg.org/ should sum it up pretty nicely.

Is a pet game a PBBG?

sure

[tellmore]

number of users is limited, I agree.
But your speculations have a few flaws.

After a time a browser game becomes not so fun.
Tribal wars for example has regular updates, new servers, and so on.
But, after a year or 2 even a very casual gamer will simply not play anymore of tribal wars.

Reason is, even with the updates, it is still just the same old game.
It becomes mechanical to play it after you get to know how to  play it properly.
And many TW users are just sitting around and chatting in the forum. For better tribes they just use skype instead. Allso, many of them play other games too.

So i would say things are a bit different then what you might think.
The "game industry" is constantly evolving, and players switch games.
 IF I would follow your analysis, I would say FPS games for example are not going to work in the future.
Sure, i'm committed to DOOM series, but non-online games have the drawback of lack of updates.
People would fed up quickly with downloading a new version every so often.

Browser games life span depends on a few factors.
For example, you don't realy replay a browser game like tribal wars. But you do replay doom 3.
You can invest months in tribal wars, no way you gona hit the restart button.

IF the updates to the game carry changes that change the game into a "different animal", but all the effort you had already put in it still holds value, then you are doing well.
Also, for new players there should not be so much drawback from starting late.

Thats the key.
There are MANY browser games out there.
You have to find players, and keep them.
You have to constantly evolve the game to keep old players,
and You must include changes that make your browser game the only one of its kind.

Obvious , in any genre one can find a browser game.
Still, the market is not over whelmed with GOOD browser games.
Many of those games are not going to last long.
For the first period of life cycle many players will register and play it for a quick test, but the next cycle shows how many of those players will stay.

Things one may do to enhance a game are:
-team based play style is a must have. (like tribes in tribal wars)
-chat is also a must have.. (TW lacks this one, but has a forum..)
-forum is a must have.- (Galaxy Online does not have a forum, it is a BIG issue.. it is not a browser game but is online anyways.. and i think its client side is just a custom browser, lol..)

Ability for players to create and manage community IS a key to victory. As many just stay and play for the others in the same community.

This with regular updates that makes the game "renew" it self are keys to victory.